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DECEMBER 2,  2015

There'll be no "Short Takes" tonight, replaced by some comments on the shootings in San Bernardino.  These shootings are a very big deal. 

They're a very big deal because 1) it is very rare for a mass shooting in America to involve more than one shooter;  2) the shooters were superbly armed and appeared to have had some kind of training; 3) they were not on a suicide mission, and, judging from the arsenal in their getaway car, were apparently prepared to strike again; 4) a woman was involved; 5) they apparently slipped under the intelligence screen, like the shooters in Paris; 6) they appeared to involve Mideast elements.

I was able to monitor some of the television coverage, which involved the three broadcast networks and the cable systems.  I generally found it professional and neutral, although Fox News seemed obsessed, almost neurotic, about constantly claiming that it wasn't trying to label the attacks as terrorism.  There have been some changes in tone at Fox recently that are frankly disturbing, and I'm not the only one to note them.  I hope Fox isn't forgetting that it became hugely successful by providing an alternative to the liberal tilt of the others. 

The reaction of the usual liberal suspects has been sickening.  The president immediately went into his "we need more gun control" mode, as if gun-control laws would have influenced these thugs.  The New York Times, head of the president's amen corner, followed through with its "Yes, sire," agreement with the godlike figure on Pennsylvania Avenue.  It's all about guns, not the people who fire them.   Nothing to see, nothing to see.

As to the event itself, facts are still unfolding.  We know that two shooters, a man and a woman, were killed by police trying to escape.  The AP is reporting that they were married.  We know that at least the man was employed, or formerly employed, by the agency that was hit in the attacks.  Both the man and woman were of Middle Eastern descent.  There is indeed the possibility that this was "workplace violence," a grudge of some kind, but it seems highly unlikely.  When law enforcement got into their home late in the day they discovered what they described as an IED facility – a place to build improvised explosive devices.  Not exactly the kind of thing needed if you were just having an argument with the boss.  We don't know if there were any other shooters, or even a getaway driver.

We also don't know if the attacks were the work of an ISIS cell, or any other organized terror group.  But CAIR, the Council on American Islamic Relations, was already out with a televised press conference asking people not to blame their entire religion for the acts of the few.

More information is coming out each hour.  We'll have more tomorrow.  But our vulnerability has been exposed once more.

GRIM ECONOMIC FORECAST – AT 10:55 A.M. ET:   Forecast for a recession next year, election year.  From Reuters: 

LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.

As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.

"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."

COMMENT:  An election-year recession would clearly favor the Republicans, unless they have self-destructed by then.  It might even favor Trump, who'd be seen as a tough, practical businessman.

But it would hurt the country badly.  Despite our "recovery" tens of millions of Americans are still living on the margin, with lesser jobs than they had before and no savings.

I've always thought the "recovery" was vastly exaggerated by the administration and a compliant media.  We'll learn next year.

December 2, 2015       Permalink

AN ENORMOUS CRISIS, END OF WORLD – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:   Hillary Clinton's fans are now facing the issue they merely whispered about before.  None dare call it loathsomegate. From The Hill:

Allies of Hillary Clinton are confident she will win the Democratic presidential nomination, but they are worried about one big thing: her likability problem in the general election.

Clinton has rebounded from a rough spring and summer with a strong fall. And while her eyes remain on the primary, she is already testing general election themes against her possible GOP opponents as they do battle in what could be a drawn-out Republican primary.

Presidential elections are often decided on personality instead of specific policies. Along those lines, people in Clinton’s orbit are worried she doesn’t pass the would-you-like-to-have-a-beer-with-her test.  It’s a test she failed against then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in 2008. Throughout that cycle, Clinton stressed her “35 years of experience” while Obama pitched his “hope and change” message.

The likability test came up often on the campaign trail, most notably in the last New Hampshire debate that year when Clinton acknowledged Obama is “very likable.”

In a quip that may have cost him New Hampshire, Obama responded, “You’re likable enough, Hillary.”

Head-to-head 2016 matchups suggest vulnerabilities for Clinton, particularly against Sen. Marco Rubio, the Florida Republican who often talks about his love of professional football.

“Her challenge remains the same as it always has been — show voters who she is and reveal the person beneath the candidate,” said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public policy at Princeton University. “To win people’s trust and to generate enthusiasm, she has to let some of her character come out.”

COMMENT:  I'm not sure I accept that last comment from-the-ivory-tower comment.   Every time Hillary's character comes out, she loses. 

She does well in debates, but has an obnoxious quality about her that just turns people off.  She never seems genuine.  She seems to think it's all about her.  She lacks the image of a "great lady," the kind you'd want in the White House.  Despite all her feminist talk, she often appears weak and indecisive.   No one puts her in a league with Margaret Thatcher or Golda Meir.  The best-known female leader today is Germany's Angela Merkel.  Merkel has that rock-like quality.  But Hillary?   Would you want to spend an hour in her dental office?

December 2, 2015       Permalink

POLLING LATEST – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  A new poll confirms the dramatic slip of Ben Carson, who hasn't seemed up to speed on foreign policy, which has come to the fore as perhaps the number one issue, following the Paris attacks.  From ABC News: 

A new national poll out today shows 2016 presidential candidate Ben Carson falling from the top of the race for the Republican nomination amidst voters' doubts about his experience and the strength of his leadership.

The neurosurgeon garners 16 percent support in a new Quinnipiac University poll released today, dropping 7 percentage points in the last month to trail frontrunner Donald Trump by double-digits.

Trump garnered 27 percent support, while Sen. Marco Rubio took 17 percent and Sen. Ted Cruz earned 16 percent. All other GOP candidates earned 5 percent or less. Carson had been neck-and-neck for the lead with the real estate mogul in early November.

But now, he's locked in a battle with Rubio and Cruz, both of whom are seeing their highest support in months.

An increased focus on terrorism and foreign affairs after last month's tragic attacks in Paris has prompted a new chapter of the campaign. Only 42 percent of Republican voters now say Carson has the right experience to be president, plummeting from 64 percent just four weeks ago.

And only six in 10 say he has strong leadership qualities -- down from 76 percent of Republicans in early November. But his fall has even affected other areas: Carson has also seen double-digit drops in areas like honesty and trustworthiness and overall favorability, where Carson had been sky high.

COMMENT:  The race is now playing out as many had predicted.  On the one hand, there is a contest between Trump and Carson for "king of the outsiders."  It is clearly being won by Trump.  On the other hand, there's a contest for "king of the insiders," between Rubio and Cruz.  Still no decision, but the winner of the "insider" contest will battle Trump for the nomination.

The shakeout is coming.  The other candidates are fading.  Chris Christie might make a good showing in New Hampshire, but I doubt if he has legs anywhere else.  Jeb Bush simply can't gain traction.  Maybe he seeks a track somewhere, but I certainly don't see it.

It's an exciting race.  The Dem race is a sleeper, unless Hillary gets nailed by the FBI.

December 2,  2015     Permalink

DECEMBER 1,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

CHICAGO TOP COP OUT – From Fox:   Chicago’s top cop is out.  Mayor Rahm Emanuel announced the news during a Tuesday afternoon news conference about Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy, whom Emanuel hired shortly before his 2011 inauguration.  "I formally asked for Superintendent McCarthy's resignation," Emanuel said.  McCarthy, who came under fire following the release of a videotape showing a white cop shooting a black suspect 16 times, was “shell-shocked" after getting the news, the Chicago Sun-Times reported, citing sources. McCarthy and Emanuel reportedly met Monday night at City Hall and McCarthy was not fired. But Emanuel later made the decision that McCarthy had to go and phoned him to give him the news.  Trouble is, there is now a movement to force Emanuel to resign.  That would be a major blow to the national Democratic Party.  Emanuel was Barack Obama's first chief of staff in the White House.  His forced departure would vastly increase the power of militant minority groups in Democratic politics.

ANOTHER REVISED WEATHER PICTURE – From nola.com:   The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season ends quietly on Monday (Nov. 30), marking the second straight year with a below-average number of named storms. Credit a record-breaking warm-water El Nino in the Pacific and a variety of other climate conditions for the relatively inactive season, say climate scientists at Louisiana State University and Colorado State University.  The only threat to Gulf Coast communities was Tropical Storm Bill, a rain-producing storm that made landfall near Matagorda Island, Texas, on June 16 with top winds of 60 mph. Bill is blamed for four deaths and about $17.9 million in damages.  Seems to me that the climate-change crystal ball guys were saying, just a few years ago, that there would be a dramatic increase in major, violent storms because of global warming.  Will any climate-change prediction actually come true?

OBAMACARE RUMBLES – From The Hill:   The CEO of UnitedHealthCare on Tuesday said he regretted the decision to enter the ObamaCare marketplace last year, which the company says has resulted in millions of dollars in losses.  “It was for us a bad decision,” UnitedHealth CEO Stephen Hemsley said at an investor’s meeting in New York, according to Bloomberg Business.  UnitedHealth, the country’s largest insurer, announced last month that it would no longer advertise its ObamaCare plans over the next year and may pull out completely in 2016 — a move that sent shockwaves across the healthcare sector.  Hemsley’s remarks double down on his earlier warning that the ObamaCare exchanges remain weaker than expected after two years and that it will take far longer for insurers to profit from the millions of new enrollees.   Another brilliant bit of planning by Nancy Pelosi and her Obamacare army.  The whole thing has been so poorly executed.  And you may be sure that you and I will pick up the tab.

December 1,  2015     Permalink

AMERICANS TURN THUMBS DOWN ON GOVERNMENT – AT 8:45 A.M.  Why can't these peasants understand what our good friends in Washington do for them?  Obviously, they've been watching Fox News.  That's the answer!  From the Washington Free Beacon: 

Only one in five Americans—19 percent—say they trust the government always or most of the time, which is among the lowest levels recorded in the last 50 years, according to a report from Pew Research Center.

Additionally, 55 percent think that ordinary Americans could solve national problems better than elected officials and 74 percent say that politicians put their own interests ahead of the country.

“Negative views of elected officials are hardly a new phenomenon—for years, large majorities have faulted elected officials for losing touch with Americans and not caring about the views of average people.”

Large shares of both Democrats, 72 percent, and Republicans, 89 percent, say they can seldom trust the government.

“At a general level, the public finds the government frustrating and badly managed,” states Pew.

“Just 20 percent say the federal government runs its programs well, and 59 percent say it is in need of ‘very major reform,’ up 22 percentage points since 1997.”

COMMENT:  Another fine sendoff for Barack – his legacy is everything – Obama.  Clearly, poll results like that should help the GOP.  But, as we've said here before, Republicans have a long history of working hard to lose elections.  They seem to be at it already, but there's time to turn things around.

December 1, 2015         Permalink 

GET BIDEN READY, TELL HIM THERE'S AN ELECTION – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:   Hillary Clinton's e-mails continue to reveal a disturbing pattern.  How long can she survive this?  From Fox: 

The State Department’s latest release of Hillary Clinton documents brings the total number of Clinton emails known to contain classified material to nearly 1,000.

The department on Monday released its largest batch of emails yet, posting 7,800 pages of the former secretary of state’s communications.

The latest batch contains 328 emails deemed to have classified information. According to the State Department, that brings the total number with classified information to 999.

The emails in question were deemed classified before their release by the department – and the former secretary of state has said all along she never sent emails with material marked classified at the time.

But the large number of emails containing now-classified material further underscores how much sensitive information was crossing her private server, a situation her critics have described as a security risk.

Shortly after the release, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus released a statement saying, "With the number of emails containing classified information now numbering nearly one thousand, this latest court-ordered release underscores the degree to which Hillary Clinton jeopardized our national security and has tried to mislead the American people."

Her email practices are also the subject of a federal investigation.

COMMENT:  Bottom line, I don't think Hillary gives a hoot about national security.  She considers the laws of the United States beneath her, a view shared by her former boss, Field Marshal Obama.  For Hillary, it's all about Hillary, about ambition, about "me."

And the American people?  It's hard to know how much weight they'll give to the e-mail scandal in a general election.  Remember, the media will be on Hillary's side.  She is this year's Obama, the next hope of the hopeless sixties generation.

But Hillary must get the nomination first.  And the law may just catch up with her before that happens.

December 1, 2015       Permalink

FOLLOW THE MONEY – AT 8:05 A.M. ET:  The climate sweepstakes, er, I mean summit, is underway in Paris.  The mainstream media is painting it as Earth's last gasp, a final attempt to save civilization from 87 Octane.  Oh, there are some other guys there.  Need you ask who they are?  From the Washington Free Beacon:

A group of millionaires and billionaires that includes major investors in green energy are using the international climate talks kicking off this week to push for more government subsidies for the types of companies in which they are investing.

The Breakthrough Energy Coalition on Monday unveiled policy proposals demanding that governments step up their “investment” in green energy companies. The coalition’s founding members include a host of financiers with significant green energy portfolios.

At the same time, the group said it will be leveraging government support in its own investment work, which will target early-stage green energy companies.

Green energy is not sufficiently appealing to private investors at present, the coalition says. Therefore government must step in and provide extensive capital for firms working on wind, solar, and other renewable energy technologies – the types of firms that Breakthrough will be backing.

The effort comes as world leaders gather for a United Nations conference on climate change, where the Obama administration is expected to push for greater government action to reduce U.S. and global carbon emissions.

COMMENT:  Did you read that quote?  Gee, I wonder why "green energy is not sufficiently appealing to private investors at present."  Could it be that much of the "breakthrough technology" actually holds very little promise?  Could it be that knowledgeable investors have serious doubts about the climate-change drumbeat?  Nah.  Couldn't be those things at all.  Barack wouldn't lie to us.

December 1,  2015     Permalink